Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 102 SkyWest	SLC 10:56	BIL 12:31	3%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 3828 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 16:25	BIL 17:52	7%	3%	0.5%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Billings on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214	2h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:53 → BIL 13:03AA 4095 · flown by Envoy	8h 03m	99%	91%
United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Denver	DEN 07:55 → BIL 09:36UA 4762 · flown by SkyWest	4h 21m	97%	90%
Alaska Details →	SLC 16:00 → SEA 17:16AS 734	3h 43m Seattle	SEA 20:59 → BIL 23:51AS 2457 · flown by Horizon	7h 51m	99%	90%
United Details →	SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest	3h 18m Denver	DEN 13:45 → BIL 15:29UA 5845 · flown by SkyWest	6h 59m	99%	87%
United Details →	SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232	3h 03m Denver	DEN 11:45 → BIL 13:22UA 703	6h 22m	98%	86%
Alaska Details →	SLC 11:17 → SEA 12:30AS 796	3h 19m Seattle	SEA 15:49 → BIL 18:42AS 2353 · flown by Horizon	7h 25m	99%	81%
Alaska Details →	SLC 06:59 → SEA 08:10AS 3344 · flown by SkyWest	1h 59m Seattle	SEA 10:09 → BIL 13:05AS 2054 · flown by Horizon	6h 06m	97%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON