Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1028 at 00:21 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1028 Delta	SLC 00:21	BWI 06:44	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3869 Southwest	SLC 15:41	BWI 21:51	19%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest	2h 14m San Francisco	SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57UA 2664	9h 52m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916	3h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565	8h 15m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24DL 2289	3h 41m Detroit	DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480	8h 41m	100%	87%
United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 52m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	8h 02m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	2h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918	7h 13m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799	6h 53m	97%	85%
United Details →	SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366	1h 19m Houston	IAH 12:16 → BWI 16:30UA 1720	7h 45m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → BWI 20:04DL 2928	8h 09m	99%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON