tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1971 Delta Flight history → SLC 09:55 BZN 11:17 6% 2% 0.3% 89%
DL 3676 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SLC 17:20 BZN 18:44 7% 3% 0.6% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232 3h 13m Denver DEN 11:55 → BZN 13:55UA 741 6h 55m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest 3h 17m Denver DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513 7h 03m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:45 → LAX 09:15UA 5408 · flown by SkyWest 3h 35m Los Angeles LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212 8h 39m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SLC 07:50 → SEA 09:02DL 2874 2h 38m Seattle SEA 11:40 → BZN 14:35DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest 6h 45m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → SLC 07:01 → DFW 10:50AA 644 2h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:14 → BZN 15:16AA 947 8h 15m 98% 82%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 06:59 → SEA 08:10AS 3344 · flown by SkyWest 3h 38m Seattle SEA 11:48 → BZN 14:24AS 277 7h 25m 99% 77%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 07:40 → SAN 08:50AS 3018 · flown by SkyWest 2h 48m San Diego SAN 11:38 → BZN 15:24AS 2221 · flown by Horizon 7h 44m 99% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SLC 09:49 → SFO 11:13UA 5970 · flown by SkyWest 47m San Francisco SFO 12:00 → BZN 15:21UA 562 5h 32m 71% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON