tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 4449 at 15:51, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 4449 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SLC 15:51 COS 17:35 6% 3% 0.6% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Colorado Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 2h 51m Denver DEN 09:45 → COS 10:46UA 5306 · flown by SkyWest 5h 31m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232 2h 51m Denver DEN 11:33 → COS 12:25UA 738 5h 25m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest 3h 03m Denver DEN 13:30 → COS 14:27UA 4775 · flown by SkyWest 5h 57m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → SLC 13:05 → DEN 14:51UA 4720 · flown by SkyWest 2h 04m Denver DEN 16:55 → COS 17:52UA 5308 · flown by SkyWest 4h 47m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → SLC 14:28 → DEN 16:11UA 1662 1h 44m Denver DEN 17:55 → COS 18:54UA 5861 · flown by SkyWest 4h 26m 93% 70%
AmericanDetails → SLC 08:00 → DFW 11:47AA 2195 2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:55 → COS 15:02AA 1170 7h 02m 97% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON