Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1430 at 05:11 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1430 Southwest	SLC 05:11	DAL 08:55	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4771 Southwest	SLC 17:31	DAL 21:15	19%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	7h 03m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	7h 50m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	8h 44m	100%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON