tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Washington on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 820 Delta Flight history → SLC 10:29 DCA 16:35 15% 4% 0.4% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SLC 00:04 → BOS 06:40DL 696 2h 35m Boston BOS 09:15 → DCA 11:07DL 5693 · flown by Republic 9h 03m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 7h 44m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest 1h 01m San Francisco SFO 08:20 → DCA 16:47UA 1678 8h 42m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916 3h 08m Minneapolis MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963 8h 09m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SLC 13:00 → IAH 17:12UA 497 2h 38m Houston IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224 8h 59m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214 3h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414 8h 59m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924 3h 55m Minneapolis MSP 18:35 → DCA 22:02DL 2962 8h 52m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366 3h 23m Houston IAH 14:20 → DCA 18:31UA 625 9h 46m 99% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON