Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3872 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 3872 SLC 06:01 → DEN 07:33 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3877 SLC 16:31 → DEN 18:03 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3872 Southwest	SLC 06:01	DEN 07:33	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 5683 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 05:15	DEN 06:54	3%	2%	0.5%	95%
WN 3873 Southwest	SLC 08:16	DEN 09:48	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3874 Southwest	SLC 10:22	DEN 11:54	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1232 United Flight history →	SLC 07:00	DEN 08:42	7%	2%	0.5%	95%
UA 4720 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 13:05	DEN 14:51	7%	3%	0.5%	92%
UA 5642 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 08:30	DEN 10:27	8%	3%	0.5%	81%
WN 1378 Southwest	SLC 11:52	DEN 13:25	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1317 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:45	DEN 09:12	9%	1%	0.4%	95%
DL 1553 Delta Flight history →	SLC 10:15	DEN 11:47	10%	2%	0.4%	84%
WN 4718 Southwest	SLC 13:07	DEN 14:39	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2090 United	SLC 10:34	DEN 12:10	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 5752 SkyWest	SLC 18:02	DEN 19:38	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 3220 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 11:32	DEN 13:12	15%	5%	0.7%	84%
DL 1586 Delta Flight history →	SLC 18:30	DEN 20:01	19%	4%	0.4%	71%
F9 3862 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 08:16	DEN 10:01	19%	4%	0.7%	81%
UA 1662 United Flight history →	SLC 14:28	DEN 16:11	19%	5%	0.5%	79%
DL 1623 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:25	DEN 16:56	23%	3%	0.4%	85%
F9 4236 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 16:13	DEN 17:53	25%	7%	0.7%	77%
WN 3877 Southwest	SLC 16:31	DEN 18:03	25%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON