Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1214 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 1214 SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1456 SLC 16:38 → DFW 20:27 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1214 American Flight history →	SLC 05:00	DFW 08:46	4%	2%	0.8%	92%
DL 2798 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:55	DFW 11:37	7%	3%	0.5%	86%
AA 644 American Flight history →	SLC 07:01	DFW 10:50	7%	4%	0.8%	86%
AA 2195 American Flight history →	SLC 08:00	DFW 11:47	8%	3%	0.8%	89%
DL 2800 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:50	DFW 13:30	10%	3%	0.5%	84%
AA 1878 American	SLC 11:25	DFW 15:15	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 2811 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:50	DFW 17:33	18%	5%	0.5%	77%
DL 2796 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:40	DFW 21:23	21%	7%	0.6%	77%
AA 1871 American	SLC 14:05	DFW 17:52	22%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 1456 American Flight history →	SLC 16:38	DFW 20:27	24%	9%	1.0%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON