Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 155 SkyWest	SLC 10:49	EUG 11:55	5%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 4105 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 15:02	EUG 16:02	8%	4%	0.5%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Eugene is 1 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SLC 07:50 → SEA 09:02DL 2874	2h 28m Seattle	SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest	6h 08m	99%	84%
United Details →	SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232	2h 33m Denver	DEN 11:15 → EUG 12:57UA 318	6h 57m	98%	82%
Alaska Details →	SLC 11:17 → SEA 12:30AS 796	3h 20m Seattle	SEA 15:50 → EUG 17:00AS 2338 · flown by Horizon	6h 43m	99%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON