tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2033 Delta Flight history → SLC 10:29 EWR 16:49 26% 9% 0.8% 83%
UA 2109 United SLC 11:42 EWR 18:16 33% 13% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 46m Denver DEN 07:40 → EWR 13:27UA 2640 6h 12m 94% 83%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest 56m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → EWR 16:53UA 435 8h 48m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232 1h 30m Denver DEN 10:12 → EWR 16:16UA 2381 7h 16m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → SLC 09:49 → SFO 11:13UA 5970 · flown by SkyWest 3h 47m San Francisco SFO 15:00 → EWR 23:50UA 2248 12h 01m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24DL 2289 2h 46m Detroit DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573 7h 54m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → SLC 13:05 → DEN 14:51UA 4720 · flown by SkyWest 2h 59m Denver DEN 17:50 → EWR 23:44UA 2613 8h 39m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916 2h 41m Minneapolis MSP 14:10 → EWR 17:53DL 2866 7h 53m 99% 73%
AmericanDetails → SLC 13:48 → PHX 14:35AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest 1h 35m Phoenix PHX 16:10 → EWR 23:59AA 1967 8h 11m 100% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON