Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OO 3801 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–16%.

Safest bet that day OO 3801 SLC 08:20 → GEG 09:14 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1219 SLC 17:32 → GEG 18:21 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3801 SkyWest	SLC 08:20	GEG 09:14	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1452 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:30	GEG 12:12	12%	3%	0.4%	82%
DL 1503 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:25	GEG 16:08	12%	4%	0.4%	80%
DL 1219 Delta	SLC 17:32	GEG 18:21	16%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON