Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 4246 at 09:27, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4246 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 09:27	GJT 10:42	4%	1%	0.5%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Junction on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SLC 13:48 → PHX 14:35AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest	1h 34m Phoenix	PHX 16:09 → GJT 18:47AA 6491 · flown by SkyWest	4h 59m	100%	89%
United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 41m Denver	DEN 09:35 → GJT 10:44UA 4704 · flown by SkyWest	5h 29m	99%	88%
United Details →	SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest	2h 58m Denver	DEN 13:25 → GJT 14:40UA 5488 · flown by SkyWest	6h 10m	99%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON