Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 34%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: AS 553 at 08:29, 32%.

Safest bet today AS 553 SLC 08:29 → HNL 10:54 · 32% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 714 SLC 09:13 → HNL 11:57 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Weather 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 553 Alaska	SLC 08:29	HNL 10:54	32%	11%	0.7%	no record
DL 316 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:45	HNL 14:19	32%	9%	1.9%	83%worse than usual
DL 861 Delta	SLC 11:52	HNL 14:44	35%	9%	1.9%	no record
AS 714 Alaska	SLC 09:13	HNL 11:57	36%	14%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	1h 28m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	9h 13m	96%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON