Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2366 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 2366 SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 2514 SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2366 United Flight history →	SLC 06:45	IAH 10:57	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 1532 Delta	SLC 09:30	IAH 13:42	12%	3%	0.4%	no record
UA 497 United Flight history →	SLC 13:00	IAH 17:12	14%	4%	0.6%	81%
OO 5545 SkyWest	SLC 16:18	IAH 20:33	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 1299 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:45	IAH 17:53	16%	5%	0.4%	80%
DL 2514 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:45	IAH 21:50	18%	5%	0.5%	79%
UA 6282 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	SLC 17:33	IAH 21:50	15%	7%	1.6%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON