Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–5% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 3765 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 11:09	IDA 12:18	4%	3%	0.5%	93%
DL 3895 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 17:10	IDA 18:18	5%	3%	0.5%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Idaho Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232	3h 03m Denver	DEN 11:45 → IDA 13:25UA 2383	6h 25m	99%	88%
United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	1h 11m Denver	DEN 08:05 → IDA 09:50UA 5374 · flown by SkyWest	4h 35m	98%	88%
American Details →	SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:36 → IDA 11:29AA 6468 · flown by SkyWest	6h 29m	92%	80%
Alaska Details →	SLC 10:18 → SEA 11:16AS 796	1h 17m Seattle	SEA 12:33 → IDA 15:29AS 3026 · flown by SkyWest	5h 11m	87%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON