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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 2228 at 17:50, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2228 Delta Flight history → SLC 17:50 IND 22:59 17% 5% 0.5% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Denver DEN 09:58 → IND 14:35UA 1522 7h 20m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916 1h 26m Minneapolis MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910 5h 33m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 17:27 → IND 19:07DL 3120 8h 57m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907 1h 04m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134 6h 19m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest 3h 03m Denver DEN 13:30 → IND 18:17UA 1228 7h 47m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924 1h 05m Minneapolis MSP 15:45 → IND 18:22DL 1456 5h 12m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → SLC 12:50 → ORD 17:03UA 1382 2h 42m Chicago ORD 19:45 → IND 22:05UA 3707 · flown by Republic 7h 15m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366 58m Houston IAH 11:55 → IND 15:25UA 1687 6h 40m 94% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON