Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1909 SLC 00:04 → JFK 06:27 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 671 SLC 14:35 → JFK 21:25 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1909 Delta	SLC 00:04	JFK 06:27	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1792 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:59	JFK 16:47	15%	4%	0.6%	84%
DL 697 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:10	JFK 23:47	17%	5%	0.6%	82%
B6 372 JetBlue Flight history →	SLC 00:12	JFK 06:22	17%	5%	1.0%	79%
DL 671 Delta Flight history →	SLC 14:35	JFK 21:25	18%	7%	0.6%	79%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	SLC 06:15 → ORD 10:36AA 2883	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 11:36 → JFK 14:48AA 3225	6h 33m	94%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON