Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1698 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 1698 SLC 08:25 → LAS 08:50 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 1690 SLC 17:40 → LAS 18:04 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1698 Delta Flight history →	SLC 08:25	LAS 08:50	8%	2%	0.4%	94%
F9 4695 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 09:22	LAS 10:04	12%	5%	1.0%	87%
WN 3086 Southwest	SLC 11:31	LAS 12:04	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1659 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:35	LAS 12:01	19%	4%	0.4%	77%
WN 2333 Southwest	SLC 15:11	LAS 15:42	21%	6%	0.5%	no record
DL 1672 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:30	LAS 15:55	23%	7%	0.4%	76%
DL 1690 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:40	LAS 18:04	27%	6%	0.4%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON