Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 5408 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 5408 SLC 07:45 → LAX 09:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 3931 SLC 16:31 → LAX 17:32 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5408 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 07:45	LAX 09:15	6%	3%	0.5%	90%
OO 5916 SkyWest	SLC 14:17	LAX 15:22	9%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 829 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:30	LAX 12:27	11%	3%	0.4%	88%
DL 1095 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:35	LAX 10:34	12%	3%	0.4%	92%
DL 1087 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:53	LAX 08:50	12%	3%	0.4%	92%
DL 841 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:40	LAX 16:36	16%	5%	0.4%	81%
DL 1161 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:10	LAX 18:07	20%	5%	0.4%	85%
WN 3931 Southwest	SLC 16:31	LAX 17:32	21%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON