tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2882 Delta Flight history → SLC 10:34 MCI 13:57 9% 2% 0.5% 89%
DL 2903 Delta Flight history → SLC 13:40 MCI 17:05 13% 3% 0.5% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 2h 49m Denver DEN 09:43 → MCI 12:30UA 2159 6h 15m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916 2h 16m Minneapolis MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613 6h 14m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest 3h 13m Denver DEN 13:40 → MCI 16:22UA 586 6h 52m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 8h 30m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214 2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:49 → MCI 12:39AA 1376 6h 39m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24DL 2289 1h 01m Detroit DTW 12:25 → MCI 13:24DL 2741 6h 24m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366 1h 08m Houston IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa 6h 30m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:45 → LAX 09:15UA 5408 · flown by SkyWest 55m Los Angeles LAX 10:10 → MCI 15:45UA 5426 · flown by SkyWest 7h 00m 91% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON