Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 16–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2032 SLC 09:35 → MCO 16:13 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 2024 SLC 11:23 → MCO 18:01 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2032 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:35	MCO 16:13	16%	4%	0.6%	84%
DL 2056 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:25	MCO 23:55	18%	6%	0.5%	82%
DL 2024 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:23	MCO 18:01	18%	5%	1.3%	81%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	1h 16m Denver	DEN 08:10 → MCO 13:57UA 2292	6h 42m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → MCO 16:40DL 1150	6h 30m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	SLC 11:05 → ATL 16:49DL 885	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035	6h 43m	92%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON