Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 549 at 07:12 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 549 Southwest	SLC 07:12	MDW 11:20	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3885 Southwest	SLC 13:29	MDW 17:39	16%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	8h 15m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24DL 2289	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	5h 46m	95%	77%
Delta Details →	SLC 09:45 → DTW 15:12DL 2236	2h 55m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	7h 44m	100%	59%
Delta Details →	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	1h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 16:38 → MDW 18:18DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor	6h 07m	99%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON