Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 2515 at 13:40, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2515 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:40	MEM 17:40	13%	3%	0.5%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:07DL 1681	9h 07m	100%	87%
United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	3h 58m Denver	DEN 10:52 → MEM 14:18UA 2789	8h 03m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	SLC 11:05 → ATL 16:49DL 885	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 20:11 → MEM 20:34DL 3020	8h 29m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	1h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest	5h 42m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 17:53 → MEM 18:16DL 2939	9h 06m	100%	84%
American Details →	SLC 07:01 → DFW 10:50AA 644	2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:53 → MEM 14:35AA 3888 · flown by Envoy	6h 34m	97%	84%
Frontier Details →	SLC 08:16 → DEN 10:01F9 3862	2h 14m Denver	DEN 12:15 → MEM 15:46F9 4626	6h 30m	98%	82%
United Details →	SLC 13:05 → DEN 14:51UA 4720 · flown by SkyWest	2h 39m Denver	DEN 17:30 → MEM 20:56UA 2130	6h 51m	98%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON