Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 3806 at 10:45, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 3806 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 10:45	MFR 11:40	5%	2%	0.5%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Medford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Medford is 1 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SLC 12:44 → PDX 13:50AS 3430 · flown by SkyWest	3h 55m Portland	PDX 17:45 → MFR 18:48AS 2163 · flown by Horizon	7h 04m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	2h 21m Seattle	SEA 15:10 → MFR 16:44DL 3770 · flown by SkyWest	6h 09m	96%	82%
Alaska Details →	SLC 12:51 → SEA 14:04AS 664	3h 43m Seattle	SEA 17:47 → MFR 19:13AS 2037 · flown by Horizon	7h 22m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:50 → SEA 09:02DL 2874	2h 13m Seattle	SEA 11:15 → MFR 12:56DL 3779 · flown by SkyWest	6h 06m	98%	80%
United Details →	SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232	2h 38m Denver	DEN 11:20 → MFR 13:05UA 337	7h 05m	98%	79%
United Details →	SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest	3h 18m San Francisco	SFO 10:37 → MFR 12:04UA 2322	6h 59m	100%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON