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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 2h 38m Denver DEN 09:32 → MIA 15:36UA 1418 8h 21m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234 8h 04m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936 1h 21m Minneapolis MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187 7h 35m 94% 78%
AmericanDetails → SLC 07:13 → PHX 07:57AA 6327 · flown by SkyWest 1h 19m Phoenix PHX 09:16 → MIA 16:47AA 1968 7h 34m 95% 77%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366 1h 03m Houston IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410 7h 02m 94% 75%
AmericanDetails → SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214 1h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:24 → MIA 14:24AA 1454 7h 24m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386 7h 55m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792 3h 08m New York JFK 19:55 → MIA 23:37DL 1428 11h 38m 99% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON