Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 4112 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 10:55	MSO 12:35	5%	2%	0.6%	96%
OO 166 SkyWest	SLC 16:03	MSO 17:53	7%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSO 14:38DL 362	6h 38m	97%	87%
United Details →	SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232	2h 46m Denver	DEN 11:28 → MSO 13:38UA 2357	6h 38m	98%	85%
Alaska Details →	SLC 16:00 → SEA 17:16AS 734	3h 14m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → MSO 22:55AS 2154 · flown by Horizon	6h 55m	99%	76%
Alaska Details →	SLC 12:51 → SEA 14:04AS 664	2h 50m Seattle	SEA 16:54 → MSO 19:19AS 2123 · flown by Horizon	6h 28m	96%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SLC 09:49 → SFO 11:13UA 5970 · flown by SkyWest	1h 02m San Francisco	SFO 12:15 → MSO 15:38UA 5422 · flown by SkyWest	5h 49m	75%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON