Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via SFO, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Kahului on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 623 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:30	OGG 14:08	22%	5%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 4 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	2h 10m Seattle	SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344	10h 21m	96%	82%
American Details →	SLC 07:13 → PHX 07:57AA 6327 · flown by SkyWest	3h 06m Phoenix	PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645	11h 19m	98%	81%
United Details →	SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest	56m San Francisco	SFO 08:15 → OGG 10:45UA 2010	8h 40m	96%	80%
United Details →	SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232	3h 18m Denver	DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736	12h 05m	99%	79%
United Details →	SLC 07:09 → LAX 08:13UA 5408 · flown by SkyWest	1h 13m Los Angeles	LAX 09:26 → OGG 12:11UA 417	9h 02m	95%	77%
Alaska Details →	SLC 12:43 → PDX 13:49AS 3430 · flown by SkyWest	55m Portland	PDX 14:44 → OGG 17:25AS 353	8h 42m	92%	75%
Alaska Details →	SLC 10:18 → SEA 11:16AS 796	2h 37m Seattle	SEA 13:53 → OGG 16:59AS 223	10h 41m	98%	74%
United Details →	SLC 09:49 → SFO 11:13UA 5970 · flown by SkyWest	2h 52m San Francisco	SFO 14:05 → OGG 16:36UA 2623	10h 47m	96%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON