tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 116 at 14:01, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 116 SkyWest SLC 14:01 OKC 17:37 8% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 1h 06m Denver DEN 08:00 → OKC 10:49UA 6029 · flown by SkyWest 4h 34m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924 3h 30m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → OKC 20:15DL 3791 · flown by SkyWest 8h 05m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232 1h 23m Denver DEN 10:05 → OKC 13:01UA 5324 · flown by SkyWest 5h 01m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366 3h 38m Houston IAH 14:35 → OKC 16:15UA 6189 · flown by Mesa 8h 30m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22DL 2862 8h 22m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214 2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:49 → OKC 12:07AA 3099 6h 07m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Denver DEN 13:24 → OKC 16:13UA 1656 6h 43m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:05 → ATL 16:49DL 885 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 19:05 → OKC 20:15DL 2784 8h 10m 98% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON