Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2883 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 2883 SLC 06:15 → ORD 10:36 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 2413 SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2883 American Flight history →	SLC 06:15	ORD 10:36	6%	4%	1.2%	85%
DL 2247 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:50	ORD 12:00	10%	3%	0.5%	88%
UA 1502 United Flight history →	SLC 08:00	ORD 12:20	10%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 1382 United Flight history →	SLC 12:50	ORD 17:03	17%	7%	0.6%	76%
AA 3072 American	SLC 11:49	ORD 16:10	19%	8%	1.0%	no record
AA 3258 American Flight history →	SLC 13:29	ORD 17:53	20%	9%	1.0%	60%
AA 1873 American	SLC 17:03	ORD 21:37	23%	8%	0.9%	no record
UA 1963 United Flight history →	SLC 16:10	ORD 20:24	26%	8%	0.6%	73%
DL 2377 Delta Flight history →	SLC 14:40	ORD 18:57	27%	6%	0.5%	72%
DL 2413 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:21	ORD 21:29	27%	6%	0.5%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON