Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 872 American	SLC 07:06	PHL 13:36	9%	3%	1.0%	no record
DL 2022 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:20	PHL 17:39	11%	3%	0.5%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916	2h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 14:25 → PHL 18:04DL 2594	8h 04m	99%	87%
United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 41m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575	7h 57m	99%	86%
United Details →	SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest	1h 37m San Francisco	SFO 08:56 → PHL 17:22UA 2824	9h 17m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SLC 11:05 → ATL 16:49DL 885	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:33DL 1174	9h 28m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24DL 2289	3h 36m Detroit	DTW 15:00 → PHL 16:43DL 1391	8h 43m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065	9h 25m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	SLC 09:45 → DTW 15:12DL 2236	2h 28m Detroit	DTW 17:40 → PHL 19:25DL 1686	7h 40m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692	7h 04m	97%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON