Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4507 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 4507 SLC 06:11 → PHX 06:57 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 428 SLC 17:32 → PHX 18:19 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4507 Southwest	SLC 06:11	PHX 06:57	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1447 Delta Flight history →	SLC 08:05	PHX 08:44	6%	2%	0.4%	95%
AA 6327 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 07:13	PHX 07:57	7%	4%	0.5%	91%
AA 6422 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 12:17	PHX 13:02	10%	5%	0.5%	87%
WN 3888 Southwest	SLC 11:22	PHX 12:08	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1431 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:30	PHX 12:12	11%	4%	0.4%	86%
AA 6462 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 13:48	PHX 14:35	12%	5%	0.5%	96%
WN 2973 Southwest	SLC 12:37	PHX 13:23	12%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 1738 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:20	PHX 16:04	14%	4%	0.4%	85%
WN 3939 Southwest	SLC 15:22	PHX 16:08	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
F9 3871 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 12:41	PHX 13:21	16%	7%	0.8%	86%
DL 1451 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:25	PHX 18:07	19%	5%	0.4%	89%
WN 428 Southwest	SLC 17:32	PHX 18:19	25%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON