Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3892 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 10:47	PSC 11:38	7%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 3728 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 15:52	PSC 16:38	8%	3%	0.5%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pasco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pasco is 1 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SLC 11:17 → SEA 12:30AS 796	3h 58m Seattle	SEA 16:28 → PSC 17:27AS 2367 · flown by Horizon	7h 10m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	53m Minneapolis	MSP 18:25 → PSC 19:45DL 762	6h 45m	85%	69%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:50 → SEA 09:02DL 2874	1h 33m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → PSC 11:43DL 3992 · flown by SkyWest	4h 53m	95%	67%
Alaska Details →	SLC 06:59 → SEA 08:10AS 3344 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 11:20 → PSC 12:19AS 2306 · flown by Horizon	6h 20m	98%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	51m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → PSC 14:54DL 3891 · flown by SkyWest	4h 19m	74%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON