Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 3727 at 10:45, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 3727 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 10:45	RDM 11:35	5%	2%	0.6%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Redmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Redmond is 1 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SLC 07:13 → PHX 07:57AA 6327 · flown by SkyWest	3h 07m Phoenix	PHX 11:04 → RDM 13:46AA 3929 · flown by Envoy	7h 33m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:20 → SEA 14:35DL 2921	2h 50m Seattle	SEA 17:25 → RDM 18:43DL 4141 · flown by SkyWest	6h 23m	99%	83%
United Details →	SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232	2h 33m Denver	DEN 11:15 → RDM 12:53UA 2082	6h 53m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:50 → SEA 09:02DL 2874	2h 20m Seattle	SEA 11:22 → RDM 12:45DL 3735 · flown by SkyWest	5h 55m	99%	82%
United Details →	SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest	3h 09m San Francisco	SFO 10:28 → RDM 12:12UA 2153	7h 07m	100%	79%
Alaska Details →	SLC 06:59 → SEA 08:10AS 3344 · flown by SkyWest	3h 17m Seattle	SEA 11:27 → RDM 12:30AS 275	6h 31m	98%	71%
Alaska Details →	SLC 07:40 → SAN 08:50AS 3018 · flown by SkyWest	1h 15m San Diego	SAN 10:05 → RDM 12:25AS 2086 · flown by Horizon	5h 45m	94%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON