tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 402 Delta SLC 17:52 RDU 00:03 12% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550 7h 20m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Denver DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269 8h 01m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897 1h 54m Atlanta ATL 15:48 → RDU 17:22DL 2600 7h 12m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916 2h 51m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → RDU 17:51DL 2699 7h 51m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 19:25 → RDU 20:57DL 1518 9h 02m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366 1h 06m Houston IAH 12:03 → RDU 15:55UA 2196 7h 10m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest 51m San Francisco SFO 08:10 → RDU 16:34UA 2816 8h 29m 94% 83%
DeltaDetails → SLC 00:04 → BOS 06:40DL 696 3h 20m Boston BOS 10:00 → RDU 12:04DL 2118 10h 00m 100% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON