Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2794 at 07:51 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 2794 SLC 07:51 → SAN 08:52 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3639 SLC 16:26 → SAN 17:29 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2794 Southwest	SLC 07:51	SAN 08:52	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 3018 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 07:40	SAN 08:50	10%	5%	0.6%	93%
DL 1177 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:45	SAN 08:41	10%	3%	0.5%	93%
OO 3059 SkyWest	SLC 14:38	SAN 15:44	16%	7%	0.6%	no record
DL 1296 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:10	SAN 12:08	17%	5%	0.5%	84%
AS 3019 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 18:06	SAN 19:16	19%	6%	0.7%	80%
DL 1210 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:00	SAN 15:56	22%	5%	0.5%	76%
DL 1252 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:10	SAN 18:06	22%	6%	0.6%	84%
WN 3639 Southwest	SLC 16:26	SAN 17:29	26%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON