Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3841 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 10:50	SBA 11:59	6%	3%	0.7%	96%
DL 3853 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 15:00	SBA 16:03	8%	3%	0.7%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Barbara is 1 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SLC 12:44 → PDX 13:50AS 3430 · flown by SkyWest	3h 58m Portland	PDX 17:48 → SBA 20:04AS 2029 · flown by Horizon	8h 20m	100%	89%
American Details →	SLC 07:13 → PHX 07:57AA 6327 · flown by SkyWest	2h 09m Phoenix	PHX 10:06 → SBA 11:56AA 2928	5h 43m	98%	82%
American Details →	SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214	1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:04 → SBA 11:31AA 1822	7h 31m	98%	81%
United Details →	SLC 07:45 → LAX 09:15UA 5408 · flown by SkyWest	3h 34m Los Angeles	LAX 12:49 → SBA 13:45UA 5893 · flown by SkyWest	7h 00m	99%	80%
United Details →	SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232	2h 44m Denver	DEN 11:26 → SBA 13:02UA 671	7h 02m	98%	78%
Alaska Details →	SLC 11:17 → SEA 12:30AS 796	3h 29m Seattle	SEA 15:59 → SBA 18:23AS 610	8h 06m	99%	76%
United Details →	SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m San Francisco	SFO 10:29 → SBA 11:52UA 1578	6h 47m	100%	74%
Alaska Details →	SLC 18:06 → SAN 19:16AS 3019 · flown by SkyWest	3h 16m San Diego	SAN 22:32 → SBA 23:44AS 2175 · flown by Horizon	6h 38m	98%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON