Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2874 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 2874 SLC 07:50 → SEA 09:02 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 871 SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2874 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:50	SEA 09:02	11%	2%	0.5%	93%
AS 3344 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 06:59	SEA 08:10	13%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 2995 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:35	SEA 12:49	15%	3%	0.5%	89%
DL 2921 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:20	SEA 14:35	16%	3%	0.4%	85%
DL 2817 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:15	SEA 16:28	19%	3%	0.5%	77%
OO 3281 SkyWest	SLC 18:09	SEA 19:22	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 664 Alaska Flight history →	SLC 12:51	SEA 14:04	21%	5%	0.7%	88%
AS 796 Alaska Flight history →	SLC 11:17	SEA 12:30	22%	4%	0.7%	87%
AS 734 Alaska Flight history →	SLC 16:00	SEA 17:16	23%	6%	0.7%	67%
DL 871 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:20	SEA 18:33	24%	4%	0.5%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON