Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 4763 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 4763 SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 5970 SLC 09:49 → SFO 11:13 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4763 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 06:05	SFO 07:19	4%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 920 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:50	SFO 08:51	17%	3%	0.6%	67%
UA 1225 United	SLC 16:35	SFO 17:44	21%	10%	0.6%	no record
DL 902 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:00	SFO 12:03	24%	7%	0.6%	66%
DL 1088 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:10	SFO 16:12	24%	8%	0.6%	66%
UA 5970 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 09:49	SFO 11:13	26%	13%	0.6%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON