Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3892 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 3892 SLC 07:01 → SMF 07:49 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2585 SLC 17:35 → SMF 18:16 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3892 Southwest	SLC 07:01	SMF 07:49	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1367 Delta Flight history →	SLC 08:10	SMF 08:51	5%	2%	0.5%	93%
DL 1423 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:35	SMF 12:16	8%	2%	0.5%	86%
DL 1342 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:25	SMF 16:07	11%	3%	0.5%	83%
DL 2585 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:35	SMF 18:16	13%	4%	0.6%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON