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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Tampa on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916 1h 50m Minneapolis MSP 13:19 → TPA 17:32DL 2264 7h 32m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924 3h 35m Minneapolis MSP 18:15 → TPA 22:26DL 2385 9h 16m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m Denver DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010 7h 59m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 14:03 → TPA 15:35DL 1720 6h 35m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24DL 2289 2h 43m Detroit DTW 14:07 → TPA 16:45DL 1243 8h 45m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest 3h 28m Denver DEN 13:55 → TPA 19:33UA 2375 9h 03m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → SLC 09:53 → IAD 16:27UA 1322 1h 33m Dulles IAD 18:00 → TPA 20:39UA 1140 8h 46m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → TPA 17:59DL 1425 7h 49m 99% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON