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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Tulsa on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Denver DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest 6h 44m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest 3h 13m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 6h 59m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186 7h 53m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 8h 54m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214 1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:37 → TUL 11:58AA 2352 5h 58m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366 3h 38m Houston IAH 14:35 → TUL 16:15UA 4239 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 30m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SLC 13:05 → DEN 14:51UA 4720 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m Denver DEN 17:37 → TUL 20:27UA 1937 6h 22m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → SLC 13:00 → IAH 17:12UA 497 3h 02m Houston IAH 20:14 → TUL 21:52UA 6269 · flown by Mesa 7h 52m 98% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON