Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3718 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 09:25	TUS 10:24	4%	2%	0.5%	97%
DL 3717 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 15:00	TUS 16:06	7%	2%	0.6%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tucson is 1 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	46m Denver	DEN 07:40 → TUS 08:58UA 1511	4h 43m	94%	85%
American Details →	SLC 13:48 → PHX 14:35AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest	2h 27m Phoenix	PHX 17:02 → TUS 18:01AA 6518 · flown by SkyWest	5h 13m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	SLC 09:35 → LAX 10:34DL 1095	3h 36m Los Angeles	LAX 14:10 → TUS 15:50DL 3776 · flown by SkyWest	7h 15m	100%	82%
United Details →	SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232	2h 48m Denver	DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188	6h 32m	98%	82%
American Details →	SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214	2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:49 → TUS 11:24AA 2187	7h 24m	99%	81%
United Details →	SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m San Francisco	SFO 10:05 → TUS 12:22UA 5433 · flown by SkyWest	7h 17m	100%	74%
Alaska Details →	SLC 06:59 → SEA 08:10AS 3344 · flown by SkyWest	2h 09m Seattle	SEA 10:19 → TUS 13:31AS 648	7h 32m	97%	73%
American Details →	SLC 07:01 → DFW 10:50AA 644	1h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:11 → TUS 12:26AA 2926	6h 25m	95%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON