Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 3620 at 13:31, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 3620 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 13:31	XNA 17:22	9%	4%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SLC 07:01 → DFW 10:50AA 644	2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:53 → XNA 14:17AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	6h 16m	97%	86%
American Details →	SLC 08:00 → DFW 11:47AA 2195	2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:06 → XNA 15:27AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	6h 27m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 17:14 → XNA 18:05DL 2771	8h 55m	100%	85%
United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 56m Denver	DEN 09:50 → XNA 12:47UA 5267 · flown by SkyWest	6h 32m	99%	85%
United Details →	SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366	3h 35m Houston	IAH 14:32 → XNA 16:15UA 4062 · flown by Mesa	8h 30m	99%	84%
United Details →	SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest	3h 03m Denver	DEN 13:30 → XNA 16:25UA 5641 · flown by SkyWest	6h 55m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	SLC 11:05 → ATL 16:49DL 885	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 19:35 → XNA 20:31DL 1710	8h 26m	98%	84%
American Details →	SLC 13:48 → PHX 14:35AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest	1h 14m Phoenix	PHX 15:49 → XNA 20:30AA 4086 · flown by Envoy	5h 42m	100%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON