Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:45, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Atlanta on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 741 Delta Flight history →	SMF 06:30	ATL 14:09	5%	2%	0.5%	93%
DL 904 Delta Flight history →	SMF 12:21	ATL 20:05	7%	2%	0.5%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	1h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	7h 09m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229	1h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048	7h 07m	96%	87%
United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	1h 53m Denver	DEN 10:15 → ATL 15:30UA 2806	7h 30m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367	3h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875	8h 40m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SMF 11:17 → LAX 12:56DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest	3h 44m Los Angeles	LAX 16:40 → ATL 00:30 +1DL 471	10h 13m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	SMF 09:21 → LAX 10:58DL 3700 · flown by SkyWest	3h 17m Los Angeles	LAX 14:15 → ATL 21:59DL 715	9h 38m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	SMF 07:53 → SEA 10:05DL 4075 · flown by SkyWest	3h 30m Seattle	SEA 13:35 → ATL 21:47DL 542	10h 54m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40DL 3969 · flown by SkyWest	3h 20m Los Angeles	LAX 11:00 → ATL 18:37DL 528	9h 37m	97%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON