tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3894 at 15:01, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3894 Southwest SMF 15:01 AUS 20:35 20% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 2h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → AUS 14:50DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest 7h 20m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 43m Denver DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026 6h 20m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 1h 17m Phoenix PHX 09:12 → AUS 13:38AA 1059 5h 38m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 2h 53m Minneapolis MSP 14:31 → AUS 17:17DL 2687 9h 02m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741 1h 41m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → AUS 17:19DL 1491 8h 49m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 3h 19m Houston IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:27UA 2483 8h 12m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285 3h 19m Denver DEN 15:35 → AUS 18:48UA 1899 7h 58m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → SMF 05:18 → DFW 10:47AA 1544 1h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:33 → AUS 13:46AA 1852 6h 28m 98% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:04 → SFO 15:10UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 1h 09m San Francisco SFO 16:19 → AUS 21:53UA 2150 5h 49m 74% 56%
DeltaDetails → SMF 07:53 → SEA 10:05DL 4075 · flown by SkyWest 55m Seattle SEA 11:00 → AUS 17:16DL 831 7h 23m 70% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON