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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Nashville on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 29m Denver DEN 09:51 → BNA 13:41UA 355 6h 41m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 1h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 09:25 → BNA 13:46DL 2214 6h 16m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 1h 12m Minneapolis MSP 12:50 → BNA 14:52DL 2843 6h 37m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → SMF 14:15 → LAX 15:52DL 3812 · flown by SkyWest 2h 39m Los Angeles LAX 18:31 → BNA 00:33 +1DL 858 8h 18m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904 1h 25m Atlanta ATL 21:30 → BNA 21:44DL 3002 7h 23m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741 1h 04m Atlanta ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142 6h 56m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367 1h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 13:45 → BNA 18:13DL 2205 6h 28m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285 1h 34m Denver DEN 13:50 → BNA 17:34UA 1109 6h 44m 97% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON