Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3899 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 3899 SMF 06:31 → BUR 08:02 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3904 SMF 16:06 → BUR 17:38 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3899 Southwest	SMF 06:31	BUR 08:02	3%	1%	1.5%	no record
WN 3900 Southwest	SMF 08:41	BUR 10:12	4%	1%	1.5%	no record
WN 3901 Southwest	SMF 11:06	BUR 12:38	9%	2%	1.3%	no record
WN 3902 Southwest	SMF 12:31	BUR 14:03	9%	3%	1.2%	no record
WN 3903 Southwest	SMF 14:01	BUR 15:33	12%	4%	1.1%	no record
WN 3904 Southwest	SMF 16:06	BUR 17:38	14%	6%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON