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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 3h 03m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 9h 00m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 24m Denver DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362 7h 17m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 1h 15m Houston IAH 12:16 → BWI 16:30UA 1720 8h 15m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → BWI 20:04DL 2928 10h 34m 99% 83%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 05:59 → SEA 07:51AS 1358 1h 12m Seattle SEA 09:03 → BWI 17:04AS 378 8h 05m 95% 77%
UnitedDetails → SMF 13:00 → DEN 16:26UA 1961 1h 42m Denver DEN 18:08 → BWI 23:38UA 2843 7h 38m 93% 76%
UnitedDetails → SMF 07:00 → ORD 13:10UA 2370 1h 47m Chicago ORD 14:57 → BWI 18:00UA 2737 8h 00m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → SMF 05:18 → DFW 10:47AA 1544 3h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:32 → BWI 18:50AA 2805 10h 32m 99% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON