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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Charlotte on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 3h 37m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → CLT 18:49DL 2821 9h 34m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 29m Denver DEN 09:51 → CLT 15:18UA 2231 7h 18m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 2h 43m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52DL 2070 8h 22m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 2h 09m Phoenix PHX 10:04 → CLT 17:24AA 665 8h 24m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 17:00 → CLT 18:19DL 3158 8h 49m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 1h 09m Houston IAH 12:10 → CLT 16:02UA 6197 · flown by Mesa 7h 47m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → SMF 05:18 → DFW 10:47AA 1544 1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696 7h 18m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:42 → DFW 12:10AA 1021 3h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:59 → CLT 19:42AA 2013 10h 00m 98% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON