Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1473 at 04:53 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1473 Southwest	SMF 04:53	DAL 10:20	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 172 Southwest	SMF 15:56	DAL 21:20	21%	5%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	9h 24m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	8h 04m	94%	81%
Southwest Details →	SMF 10:36 → LAS 12:08WN 1940	3h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 15:18 → DAL 20:02WN 1326	7h 26m	97%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON